2012 Federal Election Commission Database 2012联邦选举-灵析社区

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14.5 2012 Federal Election Commission Database(2012联邦选举委员会数据库)

这个选举数据库对于政治宣传很有用。里面包含了支持者的名字,职业和雇主,地址,赞助金额。一个有意思的数据集是关于2012年美国总统选举的。这个数据集有150MB,名称为P00000001-ALL.csv。(译者:因为github对于单个文件的上传限额是100MB,所以这个数据集无法推送到github上,这里我是把数据集压缩成了ZIP格式,解压后能正常导入)。我们用pandas来加载这个数据集:

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
pd.options.display.max_rows = 10
fec = pd.read_csv('../datasets/fec/P00000001-ALL.csv', low_memory=False)
# 不设定low_memory=False的话会报错
fec.info()


<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 1001731 entries, 0 to 1001730
Data columns (total 16 columns):
cmte_id              1001731 non-null object
cand_id              1001731 non-null object
cand_nm              1001731 non-null object
contbr_nm            1001731 non-null object
contbr_city          1001712 non-null object
contbr_st            1001727 non-null object
contbr_zip           1001620 non-null object
contbr_employer      988002 non-null object
contbr_occupation    993301 non-null object
contb_receipt_amt    1001731 non-null float64
contb_receipt_dt     1001731 non-null object
receipt_desc         14166 non-null object
memo_cd              92482 non-null object
memo_text            97770 non-null object
form_tp              1001731 non-null object
file_num             1001731 non-null int64
dtypes: float64(1), int64(1), object(14)
memory usage: 122.3+ MB

拿出一份记录来看是什么样子:

fec.iloc[123456]
cmte_id             C00431445
cand_id             P80003338
cand_nm         Obama, Barack
contbr_nm         ELLMAN, IRA
contbr_city             TEMPE
                    ...      
receipt_desc              NaN
memo_cd                   NaN
memo_text                 NaN
form_tp                 SA17A
file_num               772372
Name: 123456, Length: 16, dtype: object

我们可以已经能想到如何切割、整理数据,来提取赞助者的统计数据,或提取宣传活动的模式,这里我们展示一些不同的分析方法。

我们可以看到这里面没有政治党派(political party affiliations),所以我们最好添加这样的信息。我们可以使用unique得到所有候选人名单:

unique_cands = fec.cand_nm.unique()
unique_cands
array(['Bachmann, Michelle', 'Romney, Mitt', 'Obama, Barack',
       "Roemer, Charles E. 'Buddy' III", 'Pawlenty, Timothy',
       'Johnson, Gary Earl', 'Paul, Ron', 'Santorum, Rick', 'Cain, Herman',
       'Gingrich, Newt', 'McCotter, Thaddeus G', 'Huntsman, Jon',
       'Perry, Rick'], dtype=object)
unique_cands[2]
'Obama, Barack'

一种标记政党的方法是使用dict:

parties = {'Bachmann, Michelle': 'Republican',
           'Cain, Herman': 'Republican', 
           'Gingrich, Newt': 'Republican', 
           'Huntsman, Jon': 'Republican', 
           'Johnson, Gary Earl': 'Republican', 
           'McCotter, Thaddeus G': 'Republican', 
           'Obama, Barack': 'Democrat', 
           'Paul, Ron': 'Republican', 
           'Pawlenty, Timothy': 'Republican', 
           'Perry, Rick': 'Republican', 
           "Roemer, Charles E. 'Buddy' III": 'Republican', 
           'Romney, Mitt': 'Republican', 
           'Santorum, Rick': 'Republican'}

用map方法,把这个映射应用到Series对象上,我们可以用候选者名字得到一个政党的数组:

fec.cand_nm[123456:123461]
123456    Obama, Barack
123457    Obama, Barack
123458    Obama, Barack
123459    Obama, Barack
123460    Obama, Barack
Name: cand_nm, dtype: object
fec.cand_nm[123456:123461].map(parties)
123456    Democrat
123457    Democrat
123458    Democrat
123459    Democrat
123460    Democrat
Name: cand_nm, dtype: object
# Add it as a column
fec['party'] = fec.cand_nm.map(parties)
fec['party'].value_counts()
Democrat      593746
Republican    407985
Name: party, dtype: int64

一些需要注意的地方。首先,这个数据集中包含捐款和退款(退款表示把捐赠的钱退还给捐助者,用负数表示):

(fec.contb_receipt_amt > 0).value_counts()
True     991475
False     10256
Name: contb_receipt_amt, dtype: int64

为了简化之后的分析过程,这里我们只取捐款的数据,不考虑退款的数据:

fec = fec[fec.contb_receipt_amt > 0]

因为Barack Obama和Mitt Romney是两个最主要的候选者,所以这里我们单独准备一个子集来包含二人的数据:

fec_mrbo = fec[fec.cand_nm.isin(['Obama, Barack', 'Romney, Mitt'])]

1 Donation Statistics by Occupation and Employer(按职业与雇主划分的捐赠数据)

职业与捐赠也是有关系的。例如,律师倾向于给民主党(Democrats)捐更多的钱,而企业主管(business executives)倾向给共和党(Republicans)捐更多的钱。

首先,按职业计算捐赠总额:

fec.contbr_occupation.value_counts()[:10]
RETIRED                                   233990
INFORMATION REQUESTED                      35107
ATTORNEY                                   34286
HOMEMAKER                                  29931
PHYSICIAN                                  23432
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS     21138
ENGINEER                                   14334
TEACHER                                    13990
CONSULTANT                                 13273
PROFESSOR                                  12555
Name: contbr_occupation, dtype: int64

可以看到有些职业是同一种工作类型,指代的是同一个东西。下面用一小段代码来清理一下,把一些职业映射为另一种;注意dict.get方法,它会无视没有映射关系的职业:

occ_mapping = { 
    'INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS' : 'NOT PROVIDED', 
    'INFORMATION REQUESTED' : 'NOT PROVIDED', 
    'INFORMATION REQUESTED (BEST EFFORTS)' : 'NOT PROVIDED', 
    'C.E.O.': 'CEO' 
}

# If no mapping provided, return x 
f = lambda x: occ_mapping.get(x, x) 
fec.contbr_occupation = fec.contbr_occupation.map(f)
/Users/xu/anaconda/envs/py35/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/generic.py:3110: SettingWithCopyWarning: 
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
  self[name] = value

译者:上面这个warning我觉得也有必要好好了解一下,这个网站做了很好的讲解,Understanding SettingwithCopyWarning in pandas。

简单的说,pandas会在遇到Chained assignment的情况时,跳出这个SettingWithCopyWarning。Chained assignment指的是data[data.bidder == 'parakeet2004']['bidderrate'] = 100这样的情况,即把两个索引操作连在一起。

  • data[data.bidder == ‘parakeet2004’]
  • [‘bidderrate’] = 100

这两个连续操作是分别独立执行的,一个结束后,另一个才开始。第一个操作是一个访问(access)方法,这个方法会返回一个新的DataFrame。而第二个方法是一个赋值(assignment)方法,这个方法是作用在新产生的DataFrame上,所以这里的100是赋给了新的DataFrame,原始的DataFrame并没有被更改。所以为了防止这样的情况出现,pandas会发出SettingWithCopyWarning,让我们检查一下有没有出错。

那就检查一下呗,下面输出fec.contbr_occupation,发现映射关系被正常执行了,所以这里的warning我们可以忽略:

fec.contbr_occupation
0                               RETIRED
1                               RETIRED
2                          NOT PROVIDED
3                               RETIRED
4                               RETIRED
                       ...             
1001726                    NOT PROVIDED
1001727                  BUSINESS OWNER
1001728                    NOT PROVIDED
1001729    LONGWALL MAINTENANCE FOREMAN
1001730                    NOT PROVIDED
Name: contbr_occupation, Length: 991475, dtype: object

对雇主也做同样的映射处理:

emp_mapping = { 
    'INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS' : 'NOT PROVIDED', 
    'INFORMATION REQUESTED' : 'NOT PROVIDED', 
    'SELF' : 'SELF-EMPLOYED', 
    'SELF EMPLOYED' : 'SELF-EMPLOYED', 
}

# If no mapping provided, return x 
f = lambda x: emp_mapping.get(x, x) 
fec.contbr_employer = fec.contbr_employer.map(f)
/Users/xu/anaconda/envs/py35/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/generic.py:3110: SettingWithCopyWarning: 
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
  self[name] = value
fec.contbr_employer
0                               RETIRED
1                               RETIRED
2                          NOT PROVIDED
3                                  NONE
4                                  NONE
                       ...             
1001726                    NOT PROVIDED
1001727    DUFFY EQUIPMENT COMPANY INC.
1001728                    NOT PROVIDED
1001729                        T.A.C.C.
1001730                    NOT PROVIDED
Name: contbr_employer, Length: 991475, dtype: object

现在,我们可以用pivot_table,按政党和职业对数据进行聚合,然后过滤下得到捐赠额大于两百万美元以上的职业:

by_occupation = fec.pivot_table('contb_receipt_amt', 
                                index='contbr_occupation',
                                columns='party',
                                aggfunc='sum')
over_2mm = by_occupation[by_occupation.sum(1) > 2000000]
over_2mm

17 rows × 2 columns

画出柱状图,barh表示水平柱状图:

import seaborn as sns
%matplotlib inline
over_2mm.plot(kind='barh', figsize=(10, 8))

我们可以能对那些捐款给Obama和Romney的顶级捐助者职业,或顶级捐助公司感兴趣。想要得到这些信息的话,可以按候选者名字进行分组,然后使用top方法的一个变形:

def get_top_amounts(group, key, n=5):
    totals = group.groupby(key)['contb_receipt_amt'].sum()
    return totals.nlargest(n)

然后按职业和雇主聚合:

grouped = fec_mrbo.groupby('cand_nm')
grouped
<pandas.core.groupby.DataFrameGroupBy object at 0x12bed7dd8>
grouped.apply(get_top_amounts, 'contbr_occupation', n=7)
cand_nm        contbr_occupation    
Obama, Barack  RETIRED                  25305116.38
               ATTORNEY                 11141982.97
               INFORMATION REQUESTED     4866973.96
               HOMEMAKER                 4248875.80
               PHYSICIAN                 3735124.94
                                           ...     
Romney, Mitt   HOMEMAKER                 8147446.22
               ATTORNEY                  5364718.82
               PRESIDENT                 2491244.89
               EXECUTIVE                 2300947.03
               C.E.O.                    1968386.11
Name: contb_receipt_amt, Length: 14, dtype: float64
grouped.apply(get_top_amounts, 'contbr_employer', n=10)
cand_nm        contbr_employer      
Obama, Barack  RETIRED                  22694358.85
               SELF-EMPLOYED            17080985.96
               NOT EMPLOYED              8586308.70
               INFORMATION REQUESTED     5053480.37
               HOMEMAKER                 2605408.54
                                           ...     
Romney, Mitt   CREDIT SUISSE              281150.00
               MORGAN STANLEY             267266.00
               GOLDMAN SACH & CO.         238250.00
               BARCLAYS CAPITAL           162750.00
               H.I.G. CAPITAL             139500.00
Name: contb_receipt_amt, Length: 20, dtype: float64

2 Bucketing Donation Amounts(桶捐赠额)

一个分析这种数据的有用方法是使用cut函数,把捐赠额去中心化,按捐赠额大小分为多个桶:

bins = np.array([0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000,
                 100000, 1000000, 10000000])
labels = pd.cut(fec_mrbo.contb_receipt_amt, bins)
labels
411         (10, 100]
412       (100, 1000]
413       (100, 1000]
414         (10, 100]
415         (10, 100]
             ...     
701381      (10, 100]
701382    (100, 1000]
701383        (1, 10]
701384      (10, 100]
701385    (100, 1000]
Name: contb_receipt_amt, Length: 694282, dtype: category
Categories (8, interval[int64]): [(0, 1] < (1, 10] < (10, 100] < (100, 1000] < (1000, 10000] < (10000, 100000] < (100000, 1000000] < (1000000, 10000000]]

我们可以按二人的名字和箱标签(bin label)分组,得到按不同捐赠额的直方图:

grouped = fec_mrbo.groupby(['cand_nm', labels])
grouped.size().unstack(0)

这份数据说明Obama收到的小额捐助是远超Romney的。我们也可以对每一个箱进行归一化,然后得到百分比数据:

bucket_sums = grouped.contb_receipt_amt.sum().unstack(0)
bucket_sums

normed_sums = bucket_sums.div(bucket_sums.sum(axis=1), axis=0)
normed_sumsd_nm	Obama, Barack	Romney, Mitt

normed_sums[:-2].plot(kind='barh', figsize=(10, 8))

这里没有包含捐款数额最大的两个bins,因为没有Romney这边没有捐款。

3 Donation Statistics by State(按州划分的捐赠数据)

按州划分也是一个比较常见的方法:

grouped = fec_mrbo.groupby(['cand_nm', 'contbr_st'])
totals = grouped.contb_receipt_amt.sum().unstack(0).fillna(0)
totals

67 rows × 2 columns

totals = totals[totals.sum(1) > 100000]
totals

52 rows × 2 columns

还可以得到每个州,两个候选人获得金额的百分比:

percent = totals.div(totals.sum(1), axis=0)
percent[:10]

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